Your gut is wrong.
Here's exactly how wrong.

The gap between what you'd guess and what the data says is bigger than you think.

DNA evidence "a billion to one" turns out to be closer to 1-in-50 when you run the actual base rate. Flying is 450 times safer per mile than driving. A positive mammogram in a low-risk population is a false alarm 9 times out of 10.

Bad Odds finds these gaps — and turns them into stories worth reading and, for the bettors, edges worth using.